Provision of Urban Public Transport in the Samarinda Kutai Kartanegara Agglomeration: Current Landscape and Future Directions

Abstract

Public transportation is a vital component of city development, influencing economic, social, and environmental aspects of urban life. The Samarinda–Kutai Kartanegara agglomeration in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, is experiencing rapid growth in travel demand, especially with the designation of the new national capital in its vicinity. However, the current public transport system in this region is underdeveloped and struggles with integration, resulting in a heavy reliance on private vehicles and associated issues of congestion and pollution. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the existing urban public transport services in the Samarinda–Kutai Kartanegara agglomeration (current landscape) and to forecast future travel demand and service needs (future directions). It seeks to identify areas for improvement in service quality and to provide strategic recommendations for developing an integrated, efficient public transport system for the region. A quantitative descriptive approach was employed. The study delineated five key zones at the interface of Samarinda City and Kutai Kartanegara Regency using land use and administrative boundary overlays. Primary data were collected through field observations and a user survey (questionnaires) focusing on service performance indicators such as travel time, frequency, capacity, and accessibility. Secondary data, including public transport route maps, fleet size, and ridership statistics, were obtained from relevant agencies. The service performance was analyzed using descriptive statistics and compared against standards. Additionally, a transport modeling exercise was conducted: trip generation was estimated using trip rates (from Institute of Transportation Engineers guidelines) based on population and land-use data, and future trip demand was forecasted for 5, 7, and 12 years ahead (2022, 2026, 2031) using a geometric growth model of population. A trip distribution analysis was then performed to predict future origin–destination patterns among the defined zones. The existing service performance is suboptimal – survey results indicate low user satisfaction, particularly regarding punctuality (on-time performance) and comfort (crowding and vehicle conditions). Average satisfaction scores for travel time reliability and comfort were below 3 on a 5-point scale, suggesting dissatisfaction. Operational aspects such as frequency and accessibility scored slightly higher (around the midpoint), but still leave room for improvement. The dominance of private vehicles is evident: an estimated 15% of commuters use public transport versus 85% using private modes currently. The modeling results show that daily trip volumes in the agglomeration are substantial and projected to increase by approximately 30–40% over the next decade. In 2019, the total daily trips in the five-zone area were about 59,000; this is expected to grow to ~85,000 by 2031, assuming current trends. Trip distribution forecasts suggest that certain zones (especially the one encompassing Samarinda’s urban core) will attract a disproportionately large share of trips in the future, underscoring the need for robust inter-zone transport links. The study concludes that significant improvements in the public transport system are required to meet current and future mobility needs. Key recommendations include better integration of routes across city-regency boundaries, increased fleet size and service frequency to reduce waiting times, adoption of technology (such as transit scheduling apps and GPS tracking) to enhance reliability, and improvements in vehicle quality and comfort. These measures, aligned with national transport policy and sustainable transport principles, are essential for shifting commuters from private to public transport and for supporting the region’s growth. The findings provide a data-driven basis for local authorities and stakeholders to plan an integrated urban transport network that can ensure efficient, accessible, and sustainable mobility in the Samarinda–Kutai Kartanegara agglomeration.