Predictive Analysis of Traffic Performance Using Vissim Simulation in Informal Settlement Redevelopment in Kutai Kartanegara Regency

Abstract

Redevelopment of informal settlements frequently induces substantial shifts in local traffic dynamics, driven by increased construction activities and vehicular movement within the affected areas. In Kutai Kartanegara Regency, ongoing infrastructure enhancement programs—including neighborhood road improvements, substandard housing rehabilitation, and drainage system upgrades—aim to elevate residents' living standards. This study applies a microscopic traffic simulation approach using the PTV VISSIM software to model three scenarios: the existing condition, a “do-nothing” projection, and a “do-something” scenario with urban improvement interventions. The simulation covers projections up to 2029 and evaluates key traffic performance indicators, including Level of Service (LOS), volume-to-capacity ratio (V/C), delay times, and queue lengths. Simulation outcomes indicate that, without intervention, traffic conditions are projected to deteriorate into oversaturated states (LOS F). Instead of physical road widening, the interventions explored include optimizing the use of the existing 10-meter-wide roadway—through revised lane markings and functional lane assignments—which resulted in improved network performance. Nonetheless, the Jembatan Teluk Dalam intersection remains a critical congestion point during peak hours, necessitating more nuanced traffic management strategies. These findings underscore the necessity of implementing adaptive, data-driven traffic control measures to ensure sustained mobility and successful informal settlement upgrading initiatives.